NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126adb3fe35d3f1b039722da3650b702900b33d8f00d0950fc357833f417f9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8786…982dbacked Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…13d0backed Under | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 57c | 8,048$4,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.42 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,750$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 2,076$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.62 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…616fbacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 54c | 2,034$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.36 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 52c | 1,783$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.69 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 1,581$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.07 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 48c | 1,332$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.36 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 1,269$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Under | 48c | 1,240$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 46c | 1,120$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.8 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 52c | 1,031$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.97 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 917.34$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 59c | 847.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 45c | 599.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 575$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.25 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 562$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.34 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 558.53$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.19 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 493.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 45c | 493$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.15 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 40c | 356.75$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 273$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…1691backed Over | 53c | 241.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 59c | 204$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 200.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 194.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…7196backed Over | 52c | 122$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…4a47backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…de63backed Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 57.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 44c | 57.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 53c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 27.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 52c | 21.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 48c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.