NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4826e76b27c362d1c44a6c94803f67360b4a987c9e275a05733803e93cc136c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,232$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 40c | 1,606$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.62 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…b0acbacked Under | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 53c | 891.17$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.32 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 54c | 601.85$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 54c | 444.44$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…49b1backed Over | 45c | 400$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…b3c4backed Under | 55c | 400$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8315…1126backed Under | 55c | 180.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…3918backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…fcd3backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…937ebacked Under | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 42c | 26.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.