NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfcc01b686d60cbc2def7454e0b183e2f9b17fca04f096c68bcc7a6155a5062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 17,045$8,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,994.98 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 8,300$4,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 7,469$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.53 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 3,476$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.41 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Over | 47c | 3,140$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 53c | 3,102$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.13 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 2,465$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 49c | 1,525$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.44 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 591.07$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 485.98$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 56c | 464.29$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 437.25$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.96 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 43c | 150.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 42c | 103.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…2241backed Over | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Over | 49c | 40.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 48c | 34.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 29.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Over | 44c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.