Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22cd3d1d012fdf5dd4653db706c7dba241327b2ebf4dd0f9a5250dc73f760cc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 397.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 29c | 362.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 24c | 249.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 210$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 206$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 200.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 172.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 145.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 142.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 133.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 105.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 98.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 87.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 77.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 77.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 67.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 65.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 64c | 59.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 52.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 50.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 49.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 48.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…36b5backed Yes | 26c | 48.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 47.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 35c | 46.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 72c | 46.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 39.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 32c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 33.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 62c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 26.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed No | 72c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 76c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 70c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 72c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.