Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb407a0967e1bc70d7cb173f948867c0141df0fca74f2b31d66218bbc8637722b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 1,013$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 569.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 8c | 391.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.3 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 388.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 292.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 274.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 180.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 17c | 180.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 179.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 29c | 173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 43c | 158.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 157.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf42…2448backed Yes | 30c | 156$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 56c | 149.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 133.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 131.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 129.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 11c | 109.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 105.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 64c | 85.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 28c | 74.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 59c | 71.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 62.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 37c | 58.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 50.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 61c | 48.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 47.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 51c | 43.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 62c | 39.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 45c | 38.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 26.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 58c | 25.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.