Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5151fafecd81f4bda41057ad94c92edb954757c41220a6f31f37b6709b59a329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 835.36$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 368.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 22c | 354.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 255.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 217.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 207.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 176.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 151.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 147.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 143.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 141.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 130.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 118.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 20c | 111.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 105.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 101.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 80c | 100.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 97.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 20c | 82.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 81.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 17c | 66.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…e196backed Yes | 26c | 58.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 18c | 56.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 31c | 51.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 49.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 32.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 80c | 30.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 78c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 23.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 22.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 80c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.