Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85db85bf0e99d9edf25cfc6c3d1c4ef68b181a0da46a69f73e9cac9552ba26f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 11c | 2,995$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 49c | 2,653$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.71 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 1,377$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 1,363$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 610$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 499.17$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 497.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 413.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 80c | 332.09$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 44c | 312.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.62 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 58c | 285.94$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 279.03$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 261$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 56c | 249.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 214$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 198.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 32c | 188.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 55c | 181.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 175.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 174$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…9392backed Yes | 62c | 166.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 159.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 24c | 153.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 134$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 60c | 132.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 55c | 132$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 125.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 121.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 55c | 112.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 108.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 56c | 101.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 45c | 98.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 87.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 39c | 83.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 82.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 82.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 77.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 40c | 74.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 43c | 73.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 71.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 56c | 70.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 36c | 68.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 67.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 55c | 67.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 66.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed Yes | 54c | 64.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 60.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 60.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 60.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 59.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 46c | 56.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 48c | 54.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 48c | 53.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 47c | 51.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 50.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 49.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 49.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 48.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 48.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 57c | 47.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 47.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 45.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 48c | 45.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 45.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 48c | 44.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 43c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 52c | 38.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 38.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 76c | 34.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 41c | 32.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…b0a1backed No | 48c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 53c | 30.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 28.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 51c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 26.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 25.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.