Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38444ee17511d2966cfa9416b95afc1959291d0e14458fdee4c34188d2125406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,093$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 724.99$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 539.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 474.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 30c | 435.54$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 433.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 408.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 246.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 226.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 220.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 25c | 201.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 185.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 177.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 173.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 153.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 143.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 134.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 122.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 18c | 120.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 114.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 17c | 105.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…dd85backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 18c | 86.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 82.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 82.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 71c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 72.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 14c | 72.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 14c | 72.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 67.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 60.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 59.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 22c | 58.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 46.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 33.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 32.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 31.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 30.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 21.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 71c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 71c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.