Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1141b0fd0f618814e8f54cc876a524fd762757937165fcf48c19b33e80e5ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 641.37$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 564.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 270$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 257.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 256.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 34c | 193.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 17c | 190.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…42cebacked Yes | 41c | 159.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 150.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 146$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 139.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 20c | 127.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 122.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 115.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 112.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 83.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 59c | 80.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 79.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 67c | 73.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 71.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 70.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…4c15backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 65.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 54.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 42c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…d282backed No | 80c | 40.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 54c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…8feabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 79c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.