Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad0498c43910e3b9df10fe0f05bd789d79cc640fa4098cf7940629bd146aeacf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 599.97$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 270$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 9c | 224.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…3980backed No | 68c | 183.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…4c15backed Yes | 27c | 139.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 69c | 129.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 128.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 126.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 115.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 112.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 67c | 101.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…42cebacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 97.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 79c | 76.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 72.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 52.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 48.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 47.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 42.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 29.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 62c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 24.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 68c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.