Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329150b32df592e2250f449198225e92fc5fec10fb0022070df19aa20c9d841e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 659.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 369.35$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 39c | 254.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 242.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 230.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 224$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 222$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 211.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 54c | 198.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 198$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 78c | 130.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 100.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 78.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 69.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 48.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 57c | 44.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 67c | 40.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 35.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 56c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 57c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 75c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…8263backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.