Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ccd84f20aec6ab988e5d43081bbcf1b89e2e6c4dea54de99a30d4469656009f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 641.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 500$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 429.07$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 31c | 350.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 312.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 66c | 302.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 21c | 281$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 211$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 206.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 202$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 175.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 162.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 46c | 152.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 148.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 147.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 139.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 137.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 126.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 25c | 120.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 119.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 71c | 107.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 24c | 98.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 98.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…c731backed No | 77c | 90.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 86.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 82.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 47c | 76.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 79c | 75.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 68.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 63.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 50c | 62.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 51c | 58.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 54.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 53.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked No | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 50.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…5e63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 48.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed No | 70c | 38.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 47c | 37.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 61c | 37.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 63c | 33.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 64c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 23.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 63c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 18.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.