Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed41425d0b90aa00e80e6648a9a42aa086dfe097e4936a9e5c75891cd25ceb3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 44c | 320.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 308.24$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 282.34$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 272.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.3 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 75c | 257.61$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 255.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 231.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 59c | 205.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 202.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 202$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 186.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 186.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 174.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 160.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 38c | 159.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 47c | 156.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 65c | 154.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 73c | 153.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 46c | 142.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 67c | 136.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 132.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 124.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 120.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 65c | 112.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 49c | 99.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 99.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 98.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 95.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 95.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 32c | 95.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 50c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 91.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 86.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 66c | 83.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 78.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 64c | 76.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 46c | 74.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 33c | 73.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 68c | 73.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 54c | 68.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 59c | 68.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 46c | 66.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 64.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 52c | 62.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 40c | 56.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 44c | 56.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 55.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 54.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 55c | 51.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0969backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 46.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 62c | 41.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 40.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 76c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 57c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 45c | 33.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 33.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 70c | 32.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 64c | 31.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…d636backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 30.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 30.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 48c | 29.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…0e4bbacked Yes | 56c | 29.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.