Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4112df7f71cd8331938cf21c96b4a1d63ec93e58a6df3aea94a4ec46f8487ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 511.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 393.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 31c | 341.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 19c | 273.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 211.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 190.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 172.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 157.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 157.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 147.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 143.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 140.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 122.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 122.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 110.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 70c | 105.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 105.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 97.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…4674backed Yes | 27c | 91.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 73.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 68.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…d636backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 40.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 26c | 38.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 37.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.