Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a570f33cfe0f47193d36ec22a783f027beca64ae0b8d43986e3726af6bb2924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 35c | 577.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 308.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f74ebacked No | 46c | 288.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 150.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 146.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 57c | 122$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 92.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 87.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 69.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…22e9backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 36c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 31.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 27.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 66c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.