TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes1c7,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No66c1,350$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.591,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c1,164$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.544,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c985.56$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.411,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c347.97$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No57c306.42$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c267.87$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes19c203.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4334050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes24c181$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes41c167.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.091,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No65c158.79$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5677851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes28c155.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3387629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c135.12$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.52,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c127.76$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.273,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No50c124.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c121.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.525,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c121.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c120.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked No69c110.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6321651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c108.39$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.784,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c106.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c103.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.673,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c101$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff6…4cb5backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c99.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.025,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes28c98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.111,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No63c95.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.562,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7c…968fbacked Yes53c93.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.081,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes43c87.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked Yes67c83.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c77.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.063,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes42c76.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.951,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes66c75.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No59c74.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.363,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No77c72.94$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.72,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes41c72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.842643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes38c70.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No67c66.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0516651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No36c65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.351,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes42c62.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.351513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes30c62.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No55c60.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes31c60.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6935344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No64c56.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c50.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c50.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.282,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4920…2b87backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.525038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9512544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…cb0bbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes53c49.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes43c44.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…9f30backed No43c37.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.492556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes30c35.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No68c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4713862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9942151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No58c27.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4218845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No41c27.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No54c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.426643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No78c25.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.651,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c23.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da9…1ea2backed Yes50c20.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c19.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.593,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c18.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No71c15.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.461,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.