Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf91bcc12f728a7ae0b35869a5672ae8ecbe88d03c3acc97f71d2aac43f4902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,156$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 51c | 988.26$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 758.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 32c | 622.12$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 65c | 500.41$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 473.87$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 427.13$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 292.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 35c | 249.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 215.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 203.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 201.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 44c | 191.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 170$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 46c | 168.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 128$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 124.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 50c | 116.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed Yes | 52c | 99.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 99.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 97.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 91.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 86.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 86.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 84.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 33c | 82.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 75.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 74.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 71.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 62.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 41c | 61.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 50c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 60.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 53c | 57.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…115dbacked Yes | 65c | 52.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 52.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…9f30backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 49.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…6c98backed Yes | 31c | 42.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 41.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 64c | 32.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 65c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 52c | 29.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 51c | 26.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 71c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 24.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 24.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.