TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$509,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$539,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens48c79,953$38,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,575.4467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Lightning0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Lightning52c35,769$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,6001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,6001747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lightning51c26,432$13,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,480.4151550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens48c25,457$12,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,236.921,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens48c15,660$7,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,083.761,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning53c11,584$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.1820756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Canadiens48c11,304$5,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,878.074252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Lightning52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Lightning52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9312950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Canadiens48c9,885$4,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,184.2427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning27c9,538$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.022,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning36c8,977$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.7340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning52c7,542$3,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.321,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…0a2bbacked Lightning52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning34c6,878$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.3933234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canadiens52c6,394$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.2930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens73c6,134$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.552236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Canadiens49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.9815749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning52c5,977$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.191,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning34c5,237$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.033,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lightning51c5,120$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.0744848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Lightning36c5,060$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.712146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Canadiens48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.678946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Canadiens73c4,148$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.229562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Lightning52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0809751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Canadiens47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4c…28ddbacked Canadiens45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.842045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Canadiens47c3,929$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.464139%16 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens49c3,707$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.4827044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Canadiens50c3,600$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Canadiens48c3,553$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.4838849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea3…f51cbacked Lightning53c3,400$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+61.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x371b…c366backed Lightning53c3,158$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd74…888dbacked Canadiens45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6502445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Lightning52c2,985$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5524452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Canadiens70c2,868$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.9514946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning51c2,734$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.482,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…58b2backed Canadiens48c2,558$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens64c2,554$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.071,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lightning51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning51c2,486$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.4841850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lightning52c2,455$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.4766552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc510…629abacked Lightning51c2,357$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.84544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x199a…ef23backed Lightning26c2,346$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d29…1a00backed Canadiens48c2,209$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Canadiens48c2,176$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.0689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Lightning53c2,005$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.625447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Canadiens47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Canadiens47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Canadiens47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0604465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Canadiens47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0606245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Lightning52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Lightning51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.967338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed Lightning52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Lightning52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Lightning52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9821849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a43…da23backed Canadiens48c1,788$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.764100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked Lightning50c1,774$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Lightning52c1,750$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Lightning52c1,670$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning52c1,667$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.8461959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning52c1,638$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.2261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Canadiens55c1,583$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.2418853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Canadiens48c1,549$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.6826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Canadiens55c1,521$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.7733450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Canadiens48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7809659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Canadiens67c1,371$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.191,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning51c1,301$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.762,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Lightning31c1,297$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Lightning48c1,155$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.1413850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f4…e161backed Canadiens49c1,131$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Canadiens49c1,111$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.617949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Canadiens48c1,040$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Canadiens50c1,001$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.0819141.9%80 W · 111 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Lightning52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52045749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2288…8f5fbacked Canadiens47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Lightning52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Canadiens48c1,000$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5253447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49a5…b220backed Canadiens47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.995952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Canadiens47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.992751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning53c969.81$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Lightning52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011151.4%57 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c2…58e9backed Lightning42c948.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Lightning52c937.79$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.651030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47af…799bbacked Lightning52c930$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Canadiens60c900$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.7916446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c31…ebdbbacked Lightning52c894.87$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.779650%48 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Lightning28c881.98$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5810746.7%50 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e12…84debacked Lightning52c880$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Canadiens48c855$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.611243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Lightning52c825.23$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.129457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lightning31c812.88$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5551949.5%257 W · 262 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens58c776.2$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.282,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Canadiens48c758$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.1610548.6%51 W · 54 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.