NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d417226bbf18b75887bc158c6db20caf513e7e2ad6f2086a91d6315dcfe3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 1,837$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.51 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 225.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Over | 49c | 206.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 47c | 198.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 186$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 53c | 167.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 154.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Over | 50c | 113.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 110.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Under | 51c | 108.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…4039backed Under | 51c | 108.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 49c | 107.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 40.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 50c | 36.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…25efbacked Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.