NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7f2cd8c199f171e079b646834dc3f00e3c513dd7720b722a462e59099c1380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 61c | 6,541$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.81 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 39c | 3,573$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.02 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 2,946$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.18 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.7 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 42c | 2,083$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.11 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Over | 61c | 328.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked Over | 38c | 293.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 279.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 230.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 207.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 206.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 28c | 173$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 51c | 163$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 131.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Over | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 117.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9253…d5ddbacked Under | 41c | 94.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…8e93backed Over | 48c | 77.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 41c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 35c | 63.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Over | 62c | 58.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 72c | 58.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 28c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…d4d7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 42c | 31.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 41c | 28.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…bb75backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a60fbacked Under | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.