NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716119f8155be56a8b35469585d08b9a04935ff8bf20d633ca96af291b2cda2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Canadiens, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Lightning | 72c | 2,435$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.61 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Canadiens | 28c | 2,005$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.25 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 60c | 1,053$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.31 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 48c | 474.67$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lightning | 61c | 394.12$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Canadiens | 35c | 375.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens | 43c | 334.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…9e72backed Canadiens | 28c | 258.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lightning | 55c | 243.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…48f0backed Canadiens | 30c | 238.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 71c | 238.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…400dbacked Canadiens | 29c | 197.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lightning | 62c | 181.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Canadiens | 33c | 140.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Canadiens | 29c | 131.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Canadiens | 35c | 125.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Canadiens | 37c | 110.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…13edbacked Canadiens | 44c | 99.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Lightning | 64c | 87.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 37c | 80.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…bd4dbacked Canadiens | 29c | 78.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +9.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens | 27c | 65.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Canadiens | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked Lightning | 73c | 62.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Canadiens | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning | 63c | 56.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Lightning | 71c | 50.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lightning | 66c | 47.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…2ccdbacked Canadiens | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Lightning | 71c | 41.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lightning | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Lightning | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Lightning | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Lightning | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 56c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Lightning | 66c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.