Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d623c05b8d291022d79724641f16add2098cd994ca3da6590831d088250d59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 325.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 42c | 243.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 214.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 200.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 168.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 39c | 165.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 143.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 142.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 142.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 128.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 126$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 115.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 93.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 90.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 89.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 80c | 87.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 43c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 50.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…8f66backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 44.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 40.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 37.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 36.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 35.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 32.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 30.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 77c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 22.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 21.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 74c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.