Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f021f14047e6acef79840d43a77c127a648b28b76d5a87e6d4d65a27b8de27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 70c | 500.36$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 283.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 225.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 210.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 20c | 201.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 158.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 111.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 35c | 68.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 39c | 61.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 60.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 59.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 50.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 28c | 45.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 41.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 76c | 35.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 58c | 30.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 73c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.