Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad5022da44db79be175e989ef1296d237f6b83f4d47711e5a6f3b77977efdf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7689…8317backed Yes | 4c | 2,643$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 2c | 1,263$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 60c | 647.62$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.49 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 624.79$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 614.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 54c | 501.47$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.38 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 54c | 471.47$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 376.35$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 374.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 293.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 263.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 260.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 236.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 236.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 24c | 208.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 197.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 197.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 55c | 168.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 55c | 165$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 142.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 70c | 142.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 16c | 137.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 53c | 135.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 133.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 130.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 129.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 128.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 125.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 115.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 114.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 111.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 106.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 105.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 102.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 99.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 50c | 94.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 86.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 82.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 76.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 33c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 72.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 29c | 67.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 62.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 56.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 55.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 74c | 53.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 51.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 51c | 50.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 50.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…8f66backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 54c | 49.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 49.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 49.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 45c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 45.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 44.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 33c | 44.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 44.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 54c | 42.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 54c | 42.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 42.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 31c | 40.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 39.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 38.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 35.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 38c | 34.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 29.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 27.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 69c | 24.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.