TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes59c910.76$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.418920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes26c895.46$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.264,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes18c817.48$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.8316038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No73c816.13$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.1623560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No2c809$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes24c744.44$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.938749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c594.69$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes30c531.31$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.8142820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c519.69$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.253,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c510.22$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.591,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No42c391.22$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes32c371.89$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.544,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No11c344.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.464,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes32c319.54$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c299$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.684,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes29c270$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.451,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c258.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No8c244.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c240.68$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No41c236.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.935,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes29c204.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.292142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes20c203.94$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9913531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc64…37f0backed Yes23c197.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.763540%14 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes35c193.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5211343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes28c184.29$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes32c174$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.329744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c152.09$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes36c135.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.465641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes16c125$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes34c124.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes22c123$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.151,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No64c122.95$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c116.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.486,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c114.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.21,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No11c112.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.231,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes35c108$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No16c107$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d2…9145backed Yes18c105.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.59859.4%8 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c105.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4680560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c104.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.398,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes43c102$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6221352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes22c101.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No42c99.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.642,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c97.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.969,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No79c95.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes31c95.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3331836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…b5bebacked No72c92.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.631729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c91.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.492,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No31c79.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9661752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c77.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.063,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No48c72.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No47c70.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.322,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No67c70$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.944366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes69c68.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.449518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes24c64.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2924046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No68c64.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.881,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No55c64.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No60c61.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3726458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No72c59.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes25c59.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.885543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes24c54.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No71c53.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.712,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes31c53.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.487949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes27c51.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3785330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.59746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No68c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No42c47.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9120438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes33c46.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.349145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes43c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c44.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.425,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No65c42.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No59c42.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.011,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No65c42.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2c…0854backed No58c40.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.431442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c40.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes52c39.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.131747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No49c38.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked No64c35.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.854143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No58c34.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes35c34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb6…5b35backed Yes43c32.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c32.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.132,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No74c31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9437669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c30.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.182,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd938…fa19backed No59c28.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No68c27.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No57c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.392,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No59c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes74c26.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80cc…4c27backed No67c26.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.