Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce502b45ecaca8217b75e0bbc415fe021792cd3067b71a877fd4ab7d9ee20000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 59c | 910.76$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.41 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 895.46$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 18c | 817.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.83 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 73c | 816.13$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.16 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 2c | 809$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 24c | 744.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.93 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 594.69$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 30c | 531.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.81 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 519.69$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 510.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.59 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 391.22$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 371.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 344.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 32c | 319.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.29 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 299$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 270$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 258.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 8c | 244.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 240.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 236.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 29c | 204.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 203.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 23c | 197.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 35c | 193.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 28c | 184.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 32c | 174$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 152.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 36c | 135.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 34c | 124.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 123$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 122.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 116.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 114.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 11c | 112.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 18c | 105.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 105.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 104.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 43c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 101.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 99.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 97.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 79c | 95.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 31c | 95.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 72c | 92.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 91.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 31c | 79.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 77.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 72.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 70.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 69c | 68.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 64.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 64.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 60c | 61.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 25c | 59.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 54.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 53.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 31c | 53.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 27c | 51.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 42c | 47.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 33c | 46.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 44.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 65c | 42.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 42.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 42.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 58c | 40.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 40.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 52c | 39.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 38.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 64c | 35.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…5b35backed Yes | 43c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 30.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 27.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 74c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed No | 67c | 26.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.