Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629c7ddbf01fea4ce6bd0d1480b3ccea6f3df93bb96b28dc7256a79c0bce3f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 524.67$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 411.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 400$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed No | 68c | 368.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 300.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.17 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 59c | 228.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 212.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 199.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 66c | 181.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 68c | 176.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 68c | 175.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 168.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 161.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 133.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 123.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 121$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 120.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 106.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 104.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 80c | 98.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 95.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 65c | 94.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 92.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 90.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 89.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 75c | 86.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 84.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 79.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 37c | 76.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 75.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 68.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 68.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 38c | 66.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 65.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 47c | 64.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 58.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 58.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 52.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…8f66backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 30c | 49.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 46.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 43.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 47c | 41.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 39.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 40c | 38.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 35.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 38c | 32.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 37c | 30.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 29.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 41c | 29.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 27.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 64c | 26.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 45c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 23.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 23.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 47c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 65c | 19.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.