Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c51043d85be888dc73d61c9d8f959a50e24c2d525111ce06bfab3816d7090d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 370$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 43c | 250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 50c | 241.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 177.29$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 133.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 131.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 27c | 111.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 103.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 94.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 94.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 50c | 83.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 78.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 68.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 58.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 50.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 49.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 50c | 49.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 47.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 44.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 43.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 48c | 34.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 49c | 33.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 33.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 49c | 31.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 54c | 26.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…3a21backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 53c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.