Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ac4be102d0d4634cae49d89c2551892cb5911047a57311c93ea00eccdb9848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 672.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.58 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 541.03$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 229.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 207.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 199.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 10c | 188.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 165.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 162.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 122.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 113.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 110.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 105.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 105.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 61c | 104.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 102.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 87.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 86.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 85.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 76.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 64.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 64.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 33c | 60.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 60.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 59c | 59.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 38c | 58.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 56.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 64c | 56.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 51.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 39c | 51.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 51.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 43.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 42.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 39c | 42.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 42.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 39.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 64c | 37.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed Yes | 38c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…8f66backed Yes | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 62c | 31.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 30.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 39c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…6663backed No | 60c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 61c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0969backed No | 59c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5296…39cdbacked No | 64c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.