TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0249…5b4bbacked No69c1,098$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.474847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes31c800$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55128441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes28c668.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.6540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No12c338.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8252322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c317.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c244.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.779,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes56c201.92$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c196.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.321,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes41c172.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7314452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No66c152.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c152$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.935,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No23c148.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.751,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c143.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.838,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes49c142.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.561,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c142.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.422,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No70c141.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0321268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c123.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.25,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes78c121.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c119.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.747,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes73c117.09$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.012,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes27c116$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2423958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c115.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes25c103.35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.512,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes73c101.16$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.546,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c99.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.981,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c90.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c90.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes31c79.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.075836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No24c79.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c79.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed Yes27c77.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.73935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c77.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes80c76.12$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3713588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c74.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.952,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes29c71.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.033,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed No21c71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.912114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No21c71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No53c68.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c66.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.082,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No48c65.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No21c62.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes32c62.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.111,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No48c61.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.625935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed Yes31c58.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.524533.3%15 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes43c57.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No71c56.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…8a92backed Yes30c55.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+153.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No71c53.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0313274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No19c53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.071,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b2…a5b9backed Yes72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c50.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3421339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No45c45.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c44.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.82,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No61c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes71c40.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.832,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7512…1986backed No70c39.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.43per pick54cpaid-73.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x45fe…f74ebacked Yes80c37.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4556…3f06backed Yes32c35.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0285…9050backed Yes33c34.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.351040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No71c34.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5457264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes73c33.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3618337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x796b…92c3backed No70c31.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.321369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes32c31.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3842151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No37c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c30.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.342,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.344,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes35c29.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4980130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes64c29.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.642,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No69c28.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No39c28.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes70c28.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb338…7a24backed No72c27.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205869%40 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes51c26.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.922,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2545253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c23.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.141,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c23.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No68c21.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No71c21.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9340871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c20.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes73c19.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No67c18.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c16.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.424,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.582,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.951,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed No67c14.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.