Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5556d4f6bde1b14959579032b6bf0fa676b470fc259db66e6499f77230432ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 45c | 648.61$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.63 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…207abacked No | 60c | 561.25$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 55c | 507.44$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 246.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 240.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 214.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 206.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 199.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 177.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 172.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 171.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 167.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 166.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 70c | 156.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 125.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 119.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 114.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 113.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 105.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 82.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 78.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 71.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 66.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 65.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 59c | 65.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 32c | 61.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 58.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 53.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 58c | 49.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 47.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 44.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 43.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 42.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 40.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…fb88backed Yes | 36c | 38.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 41c | 37.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 36.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 42c | 36.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 45c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 28.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 28.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 27.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 26.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…c3c5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…9a75backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…8263backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 58c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.