Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423424d6128a59f245e4af5dd5d8e28db97ec0f6b50a4ee718e715bdc3b0b180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x819d…a91dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,635$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 1,526$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 878.92$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 841.51$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 39c | 708.6$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.87 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 8c | 639.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 439.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 52c | 422.63$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.41 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 23c | 326.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 255.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 234.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 46c | 212.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 36c | 204.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 202.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…c825backed Yes | 43c | 201.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…a2d1backed No | 11c | 194.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 150.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 49c | 143.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 14c | 137.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 47c | 135.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 132.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 130.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 128.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 127.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 126.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…0c69backed Yes | 37c | 123.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 23c | 122.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 35c | 115.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 111.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 33c | 110.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 109.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 69c | 108.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 108.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8a…b51ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…8029backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 61c | 92.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 86.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed No | 46c | 84.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 41c | 84.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 49c | 84.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 59c | 84.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 83.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 29c | 69.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 44c | 68.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 56c | 66.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 79c | 62.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 39c | 62.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 74c | 57.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…f9ddbacked Yes | 25c | 55.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 40c | 54.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 48.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 48.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 30c | 46.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 45.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 54c | 44.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 51c | 40.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 47c | 38.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 75c | 37.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 40c | 37.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 76c | 35.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 34.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 55c | 34.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 33c | 33.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 65c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 30.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 29.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 52c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 56c | 28.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.