Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6dc5a9ba468013d631f53cf21a8ca9ddce1fd08cb00c1d4f02e40e71d39bb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 2c | 890.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 781.8$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 24c | 425$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.91 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 360.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 334.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 28c | 302.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 10c | 294.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.59 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 271.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 248.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 58c | 245.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 36c | 211.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 210$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 75c | 193.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 58c | 190.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 62c | 178.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 175.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 15c | 173$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 137.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 17c | 129.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 127.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…c825backed Yes | 37c | 122.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 28c | 117.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 116.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 116$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 111.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 103.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 58c | 103.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 67c | 87.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 85.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 37c | 80.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 18c | 75.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 75.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 72.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 34c | 72.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 69.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 72c | 67.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 34c | 64.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 63.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 31c | 62.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 61.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 71c | 60.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 35c | 56.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 48c | 54.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 26c | 53.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…b090backed Yes | 51c | 51.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 50.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 50.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 50.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 48.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 46.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 27c | 46.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 75c | 44.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 67c | 43.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 63c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 30c | 40.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…6ebabacked No | 75c | 39.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 33c | 39.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 38.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 33c | 36.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 36c | 36.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 31c | 35.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 32.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 37c | 30.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…9d8cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…088cbacked No | 66c | 28.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 50c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 69c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 65c | 26.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 54c | 25.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.