Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f26123a7f9985f2f6969edd88d885e4eeb888fd39ecef39e8167a8f6b92767f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 7,789$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 26c | 1,713$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.72 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 69c | 698.57$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 52c | 507.96$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.75 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 484.75$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 37c | 484$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 67c | 452.47$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 261.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 233.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 232.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 9c | 206.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 183.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 55c | 181.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 178.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 9c | 176.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 47c | 159.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 158.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 141$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 134.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 50c | 130.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 36c | 118$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 9c | 117.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 34c | 107$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…603cbacked Yes | 19c | 102.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 71c | 100.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 49c | 100.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 45c | 96.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 31c | 95.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 92.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 63c | 83.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 44c | 83.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 20c | 76.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 41c | 73.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 68c | 73.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 56c | 71.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 71.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 68.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 64.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…bb57backed No | 33c | 61.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 48c | 59.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 20c | 59.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 30c | 58.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 34c | 58.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 40c | 58.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 57.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 45c | 55.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 39c | 52.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 70c | 50.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 50.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 55c | 46.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 35c | 44.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 47c | 40.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…79e7backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 40c | 38.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 32.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 62c | 31.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 31.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 56c | 30.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 53c | 30.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 52c | 28.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 28.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 27.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 54c | 18.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.