Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x053b544d52d374a0a487234c5493e750fc569e2a964ef03896222c7772f1246f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 1,846$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 27c | 803.44$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.14 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 639.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 58c | 531.86$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 495.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 447$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 419.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 388.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 331.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 284.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 4c | 263.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 260.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 256.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 243.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 49c | 219.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 184.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 184.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 182.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 181.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 8c | 170.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 164.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 161.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 160.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 34c | 148.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 142.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 135.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 135.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 130.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 125.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 112.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Yes | 12c | 103.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 94.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 33c | 91.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 91.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 29c | 86.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 76.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 62.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f74ebacked Yes | 74c | 50.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 40c | 43.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 41.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 60c | 40.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 40.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 40.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 38.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 37.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 37.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked No | 70c | 37.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…9e9bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.