Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85312d6d5068e654bb73a5158e87f555370aa673f89f2c059e61189d2a6a86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 16,946$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 67c | 802.56$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.66 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 58c | 686.08$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 65c | 535.07$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 53c | 461.05$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 380$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 375.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 76c | 328.94$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 50c | 320.08$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 319.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 44c | 304.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.05 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 297.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 56c | 292.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 39c | 287.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 287.59$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 61c | 260.49$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 245.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 228$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 183.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 26c | 179.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 177.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 174.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 21c | 174.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 33c | 169.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 64c | 168.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 164.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 155.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…9fccbacked Yes | 9c | 151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 27c | 139$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 135.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 130.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 44c | 125.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 116.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 110.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 75c | 106.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 49c | 102.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 92.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 59c | 91.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 90.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 86.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 31c | 85.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 75c | 85.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 77.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 75.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 72.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 59c | 71.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 71.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 67c | 70.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 69.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 41c | 68.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…d848backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 32c | 63.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 75c | 63.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 63.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 26c | 61.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 33c | 60.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 58.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 56.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 73c | 55.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 54.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 52.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 50.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 48.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 48.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 47.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 47.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 27c | 46.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 46.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed No | 68c | 38.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 35.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed Yes | 33c | 34.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.