Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbafdb5be52ef62235e5be9a2933e2abe7e5ff54f93e099cf15bc7abc6a7a6bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 21c | 954.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 862.61$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 11c | 592.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 496.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.52 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 25c | 317.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 298.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 220.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 7c | 195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 187.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 182.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 14c | 169.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 24c | 163.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 26c | 154.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 20c | 150.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 128.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed No | 78c | 125.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 93.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 86.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 20c | 86.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 84.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 76.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 41c | 73.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…4eebbacked No | 75c | 66.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 65.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 59.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 59.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 56.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 27c | 54.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 22c | 52.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 52.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 50.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 50.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 39.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 40c | 37.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 30.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 14.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.