Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11e38385a854bf6b736c752071f8b89d72318f589ac8bd4d2af602c4d27582e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 635.62$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 583.58$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 525$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 34c | 318$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 312.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 305.74$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 280$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 239.23$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 181.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 179.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 159.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 49c | 154.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 65c | 153.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 49c | 130.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 125.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 123.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 94.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed Yes | 52c | 88.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 30c | 73.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 73.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 72.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 50c | 61.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 68c | 51.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 47.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 47.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 27c | 46.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 39c | 46.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 45.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 44.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 39.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 64c | 36.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 34.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 29.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 69c | 28.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 72c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 26.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 75c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 20.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 73c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.