Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce09998049682f4f46f01d80a136d3abe02696413124a6ce7d97fe1cd030276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 463.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 447.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 26c | 365.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 325.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 325.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 35c | 266.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 24c | 239.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 19c | 239.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 201.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 19c | 190.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 171$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 158.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 152.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 142.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 70c | 121.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 106.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 19c | 104.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 93.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 85.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 32c | 81.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 80.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 74.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 66.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 60.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 52.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 51.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 48.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 34c | 48.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 47.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 44.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 41.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 45c | 38.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 64c | 37.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 32.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 25.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 17.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 67c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.