Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf42ea5d8e59e8d0df8fe1d5d087c58965d1346d38b254f87d4fdf3e3f6b2161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 1,599$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.09 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 574.56$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.74 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 296$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 269$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.85 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 264.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.42 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 30c | 232.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 211.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…4486backed Yes | 28c | 193.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 31c | 190.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 187.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 171$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 161$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 152.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 148.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 32c | 144.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 142.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 133$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 124$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 122.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 100.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 93.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 91.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 87.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 59c | 85.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 84.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 83.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 33c | 77.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 70.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 66c | 59.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 56.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 54.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 54.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 53.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 52.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 69c | 51.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 49.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 66c | 48.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…beb1backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 42.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 41.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 66c | 37.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 37.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 36.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 78c | 34.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 32.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 29.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 28.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 40c | 27.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 71c | 26.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked No | 70c | 25.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed No | 71c | 21.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 60c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…b377backed Yes | 62c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 17.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.