Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89eec74bc3f6d667c98f2a84af119b2375b6acffe33a7619c1b9c50514a4c5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 1,046$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 505.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 479.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 15c | 449.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 27c | 371.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 25c | 276.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 4c | 265.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 79c | 262.69$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 18c | 221.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 214$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 176.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 146.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 8c | 144.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 123.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 117.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 22c | 108.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 104.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 103.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 100.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 98.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 84.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 74.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 64.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 75c | 51.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 51.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 42.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 41.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 37.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 35.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 77c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 78c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 72c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.