Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf708b7f2aadf808f4089d609938aa8d8d8e2c89abf862a99bc6266bfb417b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 51c | 982.81$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.34 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 49c | 493.87$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 52c | 299.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 54c | 290$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 206.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 53c | 190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 187.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed Yes | 18c | 164.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 140.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 139.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 46c | 131.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 128.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 128$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 55c | 118.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 117.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 46c | 86.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 79.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 56c | 77.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 58c | 77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…bd68backed Yes | 32c | 76.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 44c | 76.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 41c | 63.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e6…c337backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 58.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 48c | 51.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…8668backed No | 68c | 50.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 52c | 50.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 49.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad74…e535backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 44.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 51c | 44.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…ac0ebacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 55c | 42.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 39.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 65c | 36.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 32.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 31.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 53c | 29.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 56c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 62c | 25.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 51c | 24.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…7e38backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 56c | 19.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.