Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd757c0adefc06f68d6e7d0d5f19462a59c8dd7410aea3a8330f5ef6c115307fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 597.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 40c | 502.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 498.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 72c | 484.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 34c | 423.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.74 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 385.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 72c | 364.34$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 313.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 233.65$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 217.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 200.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 12c | 199.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 27c | 197.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 33c | 153.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Yes | 39c | 129.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 119$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 101.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 24c | 100.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 12c | 92.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 88.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 78.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 77.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 58c | 77.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 15c | 76.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 68c | 72.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 62c | 69.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 29c | 62.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…ca38backed Yes | 35c | 58.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 51.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 32c | 46.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 27c | 37.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 44c | 34.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 72c | 31.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 67c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 23.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…642fbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 80c | 17.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.