Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e393aade012245036df0bdc2d8735943944c07bbcd1a0fb0471d5be4b3ba36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 398.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 23c | 261.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 205.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 190.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…3070backed Yes | 12c | 165.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 151.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 141.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 140.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 16c | 136$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 20c | 129.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 78c | 129$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 13c | 113.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 107.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 16c | 100.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 16c | 97.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 16c | 96.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 83.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 24c | 77.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 16c | 76.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 75.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 73.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 78c | 60.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 37c | 57.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 46.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 46.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 45.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 44.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 41.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 75c | 37.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 32.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 75c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 78c | 22.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.