TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ba7…3d88backed No61c932$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.8547866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes38c469.32$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.982,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c332.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.023,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c313.51$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.545,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c280.05$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.418,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c268.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c262.23$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.615,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes40c245.17$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.791,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c222.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.319,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No62c209.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.041,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c197.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes38c196$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.644,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No66c190.93$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c178$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.484,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c155.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No58c144.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes38c141.19$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1947935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c133.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.772,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c114.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes49c112.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9814452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes39c107.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1980130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes39c105$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes17c101.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c95.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes54c91.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No53c91.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0f…c1e6backed No56c89.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes43c87.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.224,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes44c86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No67c73.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4387629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4925935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes44c69.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8619039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes42c60.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0340535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c59.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No63c59.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4943848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes33c57.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes54c55.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3118255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c54.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.861,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No51c54.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7614646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes34c53.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c50.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.282,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe179…63e9backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.712544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.682,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c46.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.187,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes26c46.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0223538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c44.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes34c44.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1723941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df1…6583backed No52c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764f…6b8abacked Yes41c41.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.291136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf07f…8a62backed No50c40.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes37c37.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes44c37.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7349854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No52c35.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No51c33.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.112,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes34c31.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.959053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes54c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.265455.6%30 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes50c28.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…b662backed Yes57c26.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.132055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes48c23.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3115051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No50c23.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No58c22.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c22.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No59c21.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes58c20.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8638454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c20.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1349551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c1…a400backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116163.9%39 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…f324backed No56c18.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No74c15.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.