Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08fabbb3749bbef83c9458f93259cdc89612fb992238316ea473440b0d7aeee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 427.44$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 27c | 406.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 332.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 35c | 287.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Yes | 34c | 245.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 54c | 241.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 233.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 61c | 220.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 219.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 31c | 210.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 15c | 199.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 177.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 156.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 152.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 13c | 151.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 148.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 144.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 10c | 135.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 124.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 116.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 20c | 113.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 21c | 111.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 107.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 97.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 87.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 83.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 76.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 74.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 70c | 68.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 76c | 62.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 59.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 55.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 55.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 52.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 51.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…f81fbacked No | 69c | 50.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 65c | 49.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 47.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 44.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 42.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 40.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 38.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 69c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 37c | 37.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 35.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 34.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 67c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 69c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 22.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 68c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 15.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 68c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.