Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc0b7283469271a338e0360997b3c468408a9b477f36a0bd78b7de082db229f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 2,858$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.28 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 1,354$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 527.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 329.79$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 303.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 265.08$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 242.69$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 225.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 223.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 46c | 216.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 213.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 201.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 185.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 181.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 170.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 169.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 166.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 52c | 157.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 148$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 144.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 48c | 140.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 139.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 129.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 97.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 96.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 29c | 87.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 83.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 54c | 76.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 76.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 40c | 74.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 69.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 66.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 65.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 62.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 58.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 53.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 48c | 51.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 50.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…5393backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 51c | 44.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 43.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 38.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 42c | 38.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 37.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 36.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 47c | 36.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 34.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 33.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 69c | 32.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 32.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 45c | 32.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 30.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 51c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 26.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Yes | 55c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 41c | 26.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 48c | 24.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 49c | 21.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…3633backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 63c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 18.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.