TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes39c2,858$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.2842036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c1,354$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.692,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes26c527.79$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.94,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes3c499.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No57c329.79$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.062,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes30c303.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes50c265.08$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.391,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes41c244$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0435323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No62c242.69$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.693,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes8c225.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes48c223.15$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes46c216.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c213.08$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes20c201.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5656322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No62c185.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5370148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c181.64$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No64c170.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c169.37$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.344,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c166.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes52c157.26$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3846743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c148$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.762,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No80c144.01$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.174,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808c…0aa2backed Yes48c140.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.363748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c139.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.748,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c129.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.832,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes51c114$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2842643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c97.25$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.084,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes56c96.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes29c87.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c83.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.22,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes15c79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8591861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes54c76.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.991,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes41c76.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes40c74.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9915534.8%54 W · 101 L+0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.913048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c69.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No63c66.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.862,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No47c65.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes47c62.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No74c58.96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.562,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c58.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.593,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c53.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.984,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes48c51.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9912438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No50c50.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41b…75aebacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe179…63e9backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…5393backed Yes42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes51c44.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.621,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes53c43.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.254,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.428762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1615545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes51c38.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes42c38.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes47c37.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No51c36.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No47c36.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1624141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1464167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes39c34.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6287437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c33.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.461,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No69c32.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0516161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c32.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8095…b843backed No45c32.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.622944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No53c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.574,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c30.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.692,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9527169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.717324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes54c29.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.091,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf261…3335backed Yes51c28.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.333839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes42c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No56c26.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8339956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No77c26.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.132,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed Yes55c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.563966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes41c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.775133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes57c26.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9416440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No46c26.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0910044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked Yes39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1427754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes42c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fb…7c05backed No48c24.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.812360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No80c21.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3671057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No63c21.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.932,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No49c21.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8620250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ce…3633backed No76c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No63c18.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.711163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No56c18.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.419566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No65c16.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No71c14.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.31,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.