TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes40c622.19$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.7942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes37c442.69$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.294,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c418.98$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.253,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes63c346.77$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4625549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c340.31$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.248,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No8c338.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No60c332.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.352,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c288.8$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.388,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed No55c277.97$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.068333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes34c262.4$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.424942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c182.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No46c181.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.711,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes55c179.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5813048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No70c176.17$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.551,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c149.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.666,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No69c144.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No29c144.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No52c142.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.081,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes31c123.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2b60backed Yes41c121.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.48475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+93%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c121.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.095,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes24c121.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.561,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c115.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes41c113.21$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c110.67$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.915,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c109$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.312,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c105.19$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c95.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.534,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No15c85.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.182,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No44c83.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.772,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.474,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes41c80.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.534628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c76.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.692,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c75.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No34c72.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8356322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes28c70.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9915948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No70c65.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9727841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c64.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.464,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes46c64.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.621,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e3…2868backed Yes80c62.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.17281.9%59 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.015675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No75c58.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c56.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No41c56.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No37c52.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c51.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.564,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes38c51.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7829351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes22c50.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.322,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x808c…0aa2backed No63c50.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.73748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41b…75aebacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes33c49.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1535323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No25c46.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.722,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes30c45.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes24c44.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1959144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c43.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c42.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes31c42.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.511,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes24c41.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.872,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f8…4262backed No37c40.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes44c39.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.395829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No37c37.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1416161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46cc…3097backed No60c37.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.613363.6%21 W · 12 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes34c37.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5524141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No74c36.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8915369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4458…f4e4backed Yes39c35.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.792123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-51.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No39c35.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes33c33.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No57c33.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.681,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No35c31.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No78c31.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3754853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.538561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No78c30.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1743959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes40c29.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes61c28.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked Yes43c27.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.416950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No77c27.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No61c26.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No67c25.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2320250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No67c25.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1230849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7521472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No57c24.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No62c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0227754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c20.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No61c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes56c19.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.497452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.