Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd144c6e68ec65853e981b448e6b44335b7a31fe35d0cc8588161f677438fb1e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 622.19$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.79 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 442.69$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 418.98$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 63c | 346.77$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 340.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 8c | 338.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 332.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 288.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 55c | 277.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 262.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 182.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 181.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 55c | 179.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 176.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 149.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 144.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 144.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 142.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 31c | 123.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…2b60backed Yes | 41c | 121.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 121.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 121.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 115.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 113.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 105.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 95.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 85.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 83.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 41c | 80.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 76.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 75.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 34c | 72.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 70c | 65.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 64.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 46c | 64.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2868backed Yes | 80c | 62.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 58.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 56.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 56.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 52.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 51.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 38c | 51.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 50.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 63c | 50.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 33c | 49.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 46.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 44.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 42.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 42.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 41.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4262backed No | 37c | 40.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 44c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 37c | 37.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 60c | 37.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 34c | 37.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 36.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…f4e4backed Yes | 39c | 35.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 35.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 33c | 33.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 33.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 35c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 31.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 30.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 29.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 43c | 27.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 26.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 67c | 25.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.