Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3076227d480ab3537b884818a64b2c24b282fc51430db239c99d06a29bdb20a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,659$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.45 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 1,074$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.97 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 640.31$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 45c | 600.94$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.38 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 495$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 494.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 69c | 434.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 408.21$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 406.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 400.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 36c | 321.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 314.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 34c | 293.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 260$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 254.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 5c | 251.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 47c | 242.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 240$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 20c | 235.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 207$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 64c | 204.42$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 195.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 50c | 183.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 10c | 180.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 42c | 164$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 161.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 150.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 63c | 148.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 34c | 146.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 68c | 145.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 142.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 58c | 137.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 128.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 74c | 126.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 113.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 52c | 112.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 108.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 102.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 41c | 102.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 49c | 101.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 50c | 101.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 39c | 100.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 46c | 95.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 43c | 93.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 90.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…f207backed No | 32c | 90.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 90.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 58c | 87.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 52c | 86.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…e61bbacked Yes | 58c | 85.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 47c | 83.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed No | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 51c | 82.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 79.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 58c | 75.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 51c | 75.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 47c | 74.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 71.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 22c | 70.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 65.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 64.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 47c | 61.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 45c | 60.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed No | 46c | 58.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 39c | 55.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 54.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed Yes | 48c | 52.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 48.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 45°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.