Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa072fd0d4f7c893100dc7b230ded9a5197e573a1e74fa5f459585c98a06e661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,523$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.54 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 78c | 800$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 67c | 706.19$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 640.32$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 502.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 495$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 454.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 401.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 397.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 372.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 334.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 313.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 33c | 241.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 222$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 220.48$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 210.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 23c | 208$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 23c | 200.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 198.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 192.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked No | 61c | 183.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 7c | 179.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 172.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 37c | 170.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 166.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 28c | 161.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 144.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 68c | 142.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 138.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 23c | 129.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 120.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 109.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 31c | 102.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 25c | 100.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…9bfabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 92.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 21c | 91.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 90.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 31c | 86.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 86.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 80.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 75.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 75.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 34c | 74.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12eb…5f50backed Yes | 28c | 73.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 69.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 68.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 68.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 66.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 66.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…3921backed Yes | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 34c | 60.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 54.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 22c | 54.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 22c | 54.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 54.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 52.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 29c | 52.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 49.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 48.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 44.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 42.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 40.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 74c | 36.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 45°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.