Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe625489ac99ca43d87794a09c95ec1e1996ee7229e93ffd84066c6b84b275be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,647$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.67 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 23c | 1,104$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.69 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 23c | 853.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.52 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 38c | 778.25$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.32 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 696.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 590.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…65cfbacked No | 71c | 512$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 55c | 504.66$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 3c | 467.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 465.04$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.32 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe502…fba0backed No | 5c | 439.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 436.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 75c | 375.21$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.14 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 341.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 317.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 309.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 23c | 291.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 35c | 281.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 281.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 276$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 264.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 68c | 260.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 253$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 229.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 24c | 211.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 200.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 74c | 186.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 174.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 78c | 174.31$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 173$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 20c | 169.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 163.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 6c | 157.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 30c | 136.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed No | 75c | 133.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…aeb5backed No | 71c | 128.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 126.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 125.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 66c | 124.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 66c | 124$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 111.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 33c | 104$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 99.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 38c | 78.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 78.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 48c | 74.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 69c | 73.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 22c | 66.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 25c | 65.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 28c | 60.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…f898backed No | 71c | 60.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 58.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 58.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 58.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 56.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 21c | 49.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 64c | 46.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 52c | 46.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 56c | 45.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 44.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 43.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 38c | 39.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73c…a44ebacked Yes | 30c | 35.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 34.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 33.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 32.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…ab35backed No | 69c | 31.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 30.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 73c | 27.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 26.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 80c | 25.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.